The cost of groceries could rise by five per cent next year, driving household bills up $801, according to predictions in the 2025 Canada Food Price Report.
That report is the result of an annual collaboration between researchers from several universities, including the University of Guelph, using historical data sources, machine-led algorithms and predictive analytic tools.
“Spread over a year, $800 may not sound like that much but I think the reason why it's so painful right now is because we've had food inflation for the past several years,” said Kristina Kupferschmidt, a U of G PhD candidate who acted as the report’s technical lead. “People are just struggling in general with the cost of living. It's not just the price of food that's causing a strain, it's definitely things like housing and like heating bills.
“Everything is really just starting to feel very expensive.”
The $801 figure is based on a family of four, with two adults and two children.
Meat and vegetables are expected to see the highest price jumps.
“On the lower end of things, Ontario was around three per cent (cost increase) expected. So if the forecast does hold true, Guelph would be on the lower end of that range,” she said, referring to a three per cent rise rather than five per cent. “Whereas places like the Maritimes, unfortunately, would be experiencing kind of like the higher end or even more.”
The cost of food is influenced by many factors, including global conflicts, exchange rates, climate change and more, Kupferschmidt said.
“There's a lot of economic pressure,so if people are able to hopefully budget successfully for their for their food expenditures, it can help them to make sure that they're still able to get the food they need over the entire year,” she said of the goal behind the annual report.
Because Guelph has several “discount” grocery stores, shoppers will have more control over their grocery bills than in rural areas.
“For the rest of Wellington, you are fairly limited to the grocery stores that is in your close vicinity unless you're making a trip into town,” Kupferschmidt said.
Earlier this week, Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Public health announced its the cost of the Nutritional Food Basket – an assessment of the cost of healthy foods – will dip about 2.5 per cent next year, hitting $1,365.98 or $315.47 a week for a family of four.
